Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win?

The Golden Globes nominations were announced today by Parks and Recreation“s Aziz Ansari, Star Trek“s Zoe Saldana and former House doc Olivia Wilde in an early-morning ceremony in Los Angeles, with Sosie Bacon (daughter of Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgewick) serving as this year’s Miss Golden Globes.

And the nominees (and my predictions of who’s got a shot at going home with an award at the end of the Amy Poehler/Tina Fey-hosted ceremony on Jan. 17) are:

FILM

Best Motion Picture – Drama
12 Years A Slave * Captain Phillips* Gravity * Philomena * Rush

PREDICTION: This will probably be a toss-up between 12 Years and Gravity; given the populist nature of the Globes, I see this this one going to Gravity

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
American Hustle* Her * Inside Llewyn Davis * Nebraska * The Wolf Of Wall Street

PREDICTION: Not a single musical, and you could hardly call any of these nominees a laugh-a-minute gut-buster. Since the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press usually lean toward star power, I’ll throw a dart and guess it’ll be The Wolf of Wall Street.

Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave * Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom * Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips * Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club * Robert Redford, All Is Lost

PREDICTION: Ejiofor and McConaughey are the frontrunners in this category, but because of the extreme physical transformation he underwent for the role, and the fact that it’s so different from what we’ve seen from him in the past, the Globe should go to Matthew McConaughey.

Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale, American Hustle * Bruce Dern, Nebraska * Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street * Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis * Joaquin Phoenix, Her

PREDICTION: Although he arguably gave a better performance in “Out of the Furnace’, that bombed at the box office, so Christian Bale will be rewarded for this flashier, showier performance instead.

Best Actress – Motion Picture Drama
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine * Sandra Bullock, Gravity * Judi Dench, Philomena * Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks * Kate Winslet, Labor Day

PREDICTION: Sandra Bullock held her own in this two-hander, and the fact that Gravity is the biggest hit on this list instantly gives the edge to Sandra Bullock.

Best Actress – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams, American Hustle; Julie Delpy, Before Midnight; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

PREDICTION: The Hollywood Foreign Press loves Meryl Streep. This category will be another opportunity to show her how much.

Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips * Daniel Bruhl, Rush * Bradley Cooper, American Hustle * Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave * Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

PREDICTION: Just as I think SAG voters will reward Jared Leto for his physical transformation into an emaciated, drug-addicted AIDs-stricken drag queen, so will Globe voters.

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine * Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle * Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years A Slave * Julia Roberts, August: Osage County * June Squibb, Nebraska

PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence continues to deliver one strong performance after another, and her latest in American Hustle will bring her a Golden Globe.

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity * Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips * Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave * Alexander Payne, Nebraska * David O. Russell, American Hustle

PREDICTION: Although Cuaron gave Gravity a starkly beautiful visual look unlike any other outer-space movie we’ve seen before, I think it’s going to go to Steve McQueen for 12 Years.

TELEVISION

Best Drama Series
Breaking Bad * Downton Abbey * The Good Wife * House of Cards* Masters of Sex

PREDICTION: If Vince Gilligan and the cast of Breaking Bad don’t walk away with this one, it’ll be the upset of the night.

Best Actor in a Television Drama Series

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad * Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan * Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex * Kevin Spacey, House of Cards * James Spader, The Blacklist

PREDICTION: You’ve got to feel sorry for all the other nominees, all deserving of a Golden Globe, in what promises to be a steamroller year for Breaking Bad. Bryan Cranston for the win.

Best Actress in a Television Drama Series
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife * Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black * Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black * Kerry Washington, Scandal * Robin Wright, House of Cards

PREDICTION: As much as I’d love to see Tatiana Maslany pick up a Globe to make up for her Emmy snub, given the way Globe voting usually goes, I have a feeling this may be Kerry Washington“s year.

Best Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory * Brooklyn Nine-Nine * Girls * Modern Family * Parks and Recreation

PREDICTION: Given the fact that Amy Poehler is co-hosting again, giving her a Golden Globe would be a nice way to say thanks. A shot in the dark for Parks and Recreation.

Best Actor in a Television Comedy Series
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development * Don Cheadle, House of Lies * Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show * Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory * Andy Samberg, Brooklyn 99

PREDICTION: Whether his performance was the year’s best is debatable, but it’s no secret that Globe voters love a comeback. I think this one could go to Michael J. Fox.

Best Actress in a Television Comedy Series
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl * Lena Dunham, Girls * Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie * Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep * Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

PREDICTION: She already won an Emmy, and I think Julia Louis-Dreyfus will also win a Globe in a Veep sweep.

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture made for Television
American Horror Story: Coven * Behind the Candelabra * Dancing on the Edge * Top of the Lake * White Queen

PREDICTION: Although AHS really does deserve to win, it’s not going to beat Michael Douglas as Liberace. Expect Behind the Candelabra to take this one.

Best Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture made for Television
Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra * Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra * Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge * Idris Elba, Luther * Al Pacino, Phil Spector

PREDICTION: A no-brainer if there ever was one: Michael Douglas.

Best Actress in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture made for Television
Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor * Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen * Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven * Helen Mirren, Phil Spector * Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

PREDICTION: Whether you’re looking at last season’s performance as an alcoholic nun driven to madness or this season’s show-stopper as a cancer-stricken New Orleans witch, I can’t imagine how anyone could vote for anyone other than Jessica Lange for this category.

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture made for Television
Josh Charles, The Good Wife * Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra * Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad * Corey Stoll, House of Cards * Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

PREDICTION: A competitive category to be sure; if I had it my way the award would go to Jon Voight for his devastatingly perfect performance in Ray Donovan, but I think it will be Aaron Paul we’ll be seeing up on the stage.

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture made for Television
Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge * Janet McTeer, White Queen * Hayden Panettiere, Nashville * Monica Potter, Parenthood * Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

PREDICTION: Although Parenthood doesn’t get a lot of buzz, Monica Potter has been delivering one of TV’s best performances, so let’s hope the Hollywood Foreign Press noticed what fans of the show already know.